I'm off to a nice start during the bowl season hitting 60% for the fourth straight year. I finished the NFL regular season going 3-2 landing my 15th winning week of 17 weeks. The playoffs are upon us and I'm expecting a lot of fireworks. It is rare to see the favorites make the title game, so I highly doubt a GB - DAL and IND - NE final four. Last year I produced a 70% playoff mark which ranks as my highest in the past four seasons. I'm predicting a Jags - Colts AFC final and Seahawks - Cowboys NFC final. The Jags knock off the Cowboys in an excellent Super Bowl finale.
1st Round:
(1.) Seattle (-3) v. Washington
I'll take the Hawks at home in playoffs any day of the week versus any mid-level NFC squad. The Redskins have become a recent fad in the public's eye which makes me even more sure of a Hawks victory. Seattle is a very difficult place to play and Holmgren will have the troops ready for this matchup. Solid defense and and a huge homefield advantage gets the job done.
Pick: Seahawks by 7
Result: Seahawks 35, Redskins 14 (Win)
(2.) Jacksonville (-1.5) at Pittsburgh
The Jags own the Steelers and Pittsburgh will enter the game far from healthy. My only concern here is everyone and their mother is on the Jags, which is usally a bad sign. However, the Jags are a far superior team even entering the hostile night crowd of the Steelers. Big Ben will need to have the game of his life to pull this one out, and I don't see that happening. The Jags have been labeled a solid team who makes zero noise when it counts, this is their chance to change that perception.
Pick: Jaguars by 11
Result: Jaguars 31, Steelers 29 (Win)
Under (41) Washington at Seattle
The crownd and the Hawks defense will keep this score low. The Skins have played well dwon the stretch, but will not be ready for this environment. Hawks get the job done and prove the public wrong again.
Result: 49 points -- Seahawks 35, Redskins 14 (Loss)
Other Games:
- San Diego over Tennessee by 6...it's tough to bet on Rivers and Turner with such a big spread
- NY Giants over Tampa Bay by 11..this one makes me nervous due to public outcry perdicting a victory for the G-men.
2nd Round:
(1.) Seattle (+8.5) at Green Bay
I love the Hawks in this game. The Seahawks are usually a terrible road team, but they have a lot of history with the Packers organization. Holmgren and Hasselbeck will bring their "A" game against their former squad. I think the Packers peaked to early and the Seahawks will have a huge edge in the coaching department. The Packers are a very young team and this will be first the playoff apperance for many of the starters. Young teams usually struggle their first go around and the Packers will be no different. Watch out for the Pack next year if Favre is back, but I'll take the Hawks in the first real stunner of this post-season.
Pick: Seahawks by 4
Result: Packers 42, Seahawks 20 (Loss)
(2.) San Diego (+10.5) at Indianapolis
Everything points to a Colts rout in this game Harrison is back, Gates is hurt, River and Turner, etc. The Colts have struggled with their first playoff game in the last few season, unless they face the Broncos, as this team seems to need a few quarters to heat up. Tomlinson will have a much better outing and the Chargers will try to keep the Colts offense on sideline. I expect the Chargers front seven to pressure Manning all game which could lead to a tighter game than most expect.
Pick: Colts by 6
Result: Chargers 28, Colts 24 (Win)
(Over 46.5) NY Giants at Dallas
There seems to be trend in the public that the G-Men might pull the upset in this one. I don't see it, but I do think the Giants will put some points on the board and potentially jump on the rusty Cowboys early. The Cowboys will be forced to open the offense which should lead to a high scoring game. As the game winds down, both teams will be putting the ball in the air increasing the possibility of a defensive score, especially with Manning at the helm.
Result: 38 points -- NY Giants 21, Cowboys 17 (Loss)
Other Games:
- Jaguars over Patriots by 10...I like this game a lot more when I thought the Jags were sneaking up on the Pats
- Dallas over NY Giants by 7....exciting NFC East showdown, but the Boys will prevail and return to the NFC Title game for the first time since thier dominance in the 90's
3rd Round:
(1.) Green Bay (-7) v. NY Giants
The Giants have had a nice run, but I expect it to come to a crashing halt at Lambeau this Sunday. I believe the Pack have the advantage in all three phases of the game and will have a huge home field advantage. The temperature is expected to be less than 5 degrees at kickoff with a windchill in the negatives. Favre should be able to pick apart the Giants banged up secondary and the Pack's defensive line will over power the Giants offensive line. Add up all these factors and throw in Favre versus Manning....Pack roll.
Pick: Packers by 14
Result: Giants 23, Packers 20 (Loss)
(Under 48) San Diego at New England
I'm not sure how I see this game going other than total coming in under the number. If the Pats roll the Chargers will deflated and shouldn't put up many garbage points with a score in the 31 - 14 or 35 - 10 range. If the Pats make some mistakes and the Chargers defense can get pressure on Brady the Pats might only score 21 - 24 points still leading to a play on the under.
Result: 33 points -- Patriots 21, Chargers 12 (Win)
Other Game:
- Patriots over Chargers by 7....Bolts put a fight but it's another SB on the horizon for New England
Super Bowl:
New England (-12) v. NY Giants
The Patriots are the far superior team in the game and the playoff darling Giants won't have muc of a chance. The Giants are picking up steam in te publice based on te regular season finale versus New England, in which they outplayed the Pats, and impressive playoff victories at Dallas and at Green Bay. This is far from the regular season finale. The Patriots coasted down the stretch just waiting for the "big game", and they will clearly be at their best. The Giants are over matched and will fall behind early all but destroying any chance they have at the upset.
Pick: Patriots 34, Giants 17
(Under 54) - New England v. NY Giants
I don't expect the Giants to put many points on the board falling short of the 20 point mark, so unless the Pats really explode the score should go under. It will be close, but the "under" is the recommended play. If by chance the Giants can keep it close, they will do so by ball control, a strong running game, and pressuring Brady, which all leads to a lower score game.
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